How India fares vis-à-vis other countries in terms of number of COVID-19 cases

 

Summary:

The plot of the total number of cases per country in even time excluding China, Spain, Italy, Iran and Korea. The x-axis is the total number of cases. Countries that got their first case only a few days ago would drop after those many days. India, till day 23 has only 3 cases and has been able to limit that number till day 47 (17th March 2020).

Explanation

We've plotted the total number of cases in each country in even time. Even time means that Day Zero is when the first case was identified in each country. Our dataset ^ starts from 25th January 2020. If the first case in India came on 30th January, then Day Zero for India is 30th January. If the first case in Albania was on 9th March 2020, then that is Day Zero for Albania. This means we are not considering how the virus was doing as on 10th of March but how it was doing across countries some days after it was first diagnosed. This allows us to look at how well countries have prevented the spread. In the absence of even-time, it would appear that Albania (51) is doing better than Afghanistan (21) as of 5th March.

From this analysis, we exclude China, Spain, Iran, Italy and Korea. If a country got its first case on 1st of March, then that country would drop out of our analysis on Day 17 as it has only been 17 days. From what we see that till Day 23, India is not even in the Top 20 Countries in terms of the number of cases. It enters this list on Day 23. This does not mean that other countries are doing better. It means that various countries that have done worse, only had their first case in the last week of February and they do not have more than 23 days till date for this analysis. India has clearly done better than these regions.

From Day 23 to Day 47, India has managed to keep the number of cases limited to less than 150 with <20 cases coming in the last two days each. India, given its sheer size, has put forth a very formidable defence by undertaking strong measures at the appropriate time.

This is but a milestone that we can celebrate for a microsecond; we have miles to go before we sleep.