India - The Top Retail Destination
The retail market in India has undergone a major transformation and has witnessed tremendous growth in the last 10 years
- Indian retail market is projected to reach approximately $2 Tn by 2032 from $690 Bn in 2021
- India currently has the 4th Largest retail market in the world.
- Indian retail market recovered from pandemic lows and grew 10% yoy from 630 $ Bn to reach $690 Bn in 2021.
India ranks among the best countries to invest in Retail space. Factors that make India so attractive include the second largest population in the world, a middle-income class of ~158 households, increasing urbanization, rising household incomes, connected rural consumers and increasing consumer spending.
- India ranked No. 2 in Global Retail Development Index (GRDI) in 2021.
- The retail sector in India contributed ~800 Bn to India’s GDP in FY20 and employed 8% of its workforce (35+ Mn). It is expected to create 25 Mn new jobs by 2030.
- Increasing demand for organized retail space has helped create a capacity of ~120 Mn square feet (MSF) in retail space across major Indian cities. Major Indian cities include Delhi (23.7 MSF) and Mumbai (16.7msf)
- FMCG, apparel & footwear, and consumer electronics are the largest retail segments, constituting 65%, 10% and 9% respectively of the retail market.
- The E-Commerce market is expected to touch $350 Bn in GMV by 2030.
- India’s digital economy is expected to touch $800 Bn by 2030.
- Online shoppers in India are expected to reach ~500Mn in 2030 from +150Mn in 2020.
- As of 2021, there were 1.2 Mn daily e-commerce transactions.
- The total value of Digital transactions stood at $300 Bn in 2021 and is projected to reach $1 Tn by 2026.
Recent policy changes allow 100% FDI under the automatic route for single-brand retail trading and allow such entities to commence e-commerce operations prior to starting brick & mortar retail, provided they do so within 2 years of the start of online retail.
For further details, please refer FDI Policy
Contribution to India's GDP
Share in India's employment
Growth rate of retail sector over 2021-32
Share of Organised retail of total retail market
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Growth in income will transform India from a bottom of the pyramid economy to a truly middle-class led one, with consumer spending growing from $1.5 Tn today to nearly $6 Tn by 2030.
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The Indian e-commerce industry is expected to cross the $350 Bn in GMV by 2030.
Indian retail market is estimated to reach $2 Tn by 2032, driven by socio-demographic and economic factors such as urbanization, income growth and rise in nuclear families. On the other hand, the Indian e-commerce industry is expected to cross $350 Bn mark by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 23%.
In first half of 2021, e-commerce accounted for nearly a third of several electronic categories, almost half of smartphones sold, and about a fifth of all apparel sales in India. Consumer internet and e-commerce companies raised $38 Bn in 2021, an increase from $8 Bn in 2020, driven by large-size investments across fintech, hyperlocal and e-commerce sectors as the Indian start-up ecosystem continues to mature. India will become the 3rd largest online retail market by 2030, with an estimated annual gross merchandise value of $350 Bn.
The Indian retail market is largely unorganized. However, over the next 3-5 years, share of modern retail (including e-commerce) will increase to 30-35% with share of traditional retail coming down to 65-70%.
By 2030 India will add 140 Mn middle-income and 21 Mn high-income households – Leading to a huge emerging middle class.
Increased online spending
Online shoppers in India are expected to reach ~500 Mn in 2030 from +150 Mn in 2020.
Growth of rural consumption
Rural per capita consumption will grow 4.3 times by 2030, compared to 3.5 times in urban areas
Young millennial households
By 2030, India will add nearly 90 Mn new households headed by millennials, who were born into liberalized India.
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